This calculation is also fairly straightforward, but I need to be a little more careful in distinguishing all the cases. Join us discussing news, tournaments, gameplay, deckbuilding, strategy, lore, fan art, cosplay, and more. Given a 60-card deck with a given number of lands, I started by determining the probability of keeping any opening hand with a certain number of cards and a certain number of lands.

Maze of Ith has often stalled long enough for me to rebound and steal the win, and it's a great defensive measure for any build. I’ve seen decks with as few as 1 land and decks with as many as many as 42.

Additionally, each wields the basic land classifications of the colors it produces, helping them benefit certain effects (like the swamp-reliant ability of Cabal Coffers). For sure.

That Ketria Triome comic alt style is literally the most beautiful land in the game. Sideboarding in and out lands is something that many of the top pros do constantly, and the numbers in the table indicate that this is a valid strategy.

Answer: Well, it's a must-have in EDH format, but pretty useless elsewhere. I never expected FETCHABLE TRICYCLE LANDS!

Your devotion is calculated by the number of colored mana symbols in permanents you control, and later in matches when your field starts to fill up, you can potentially have dozens of these fielded. I wouldn't bet on it. I sprinkled in some random thoughts and observations throughout. By spending two mana and tapping, Nykthos adds mana of any color equal to your devotion to that color. On a scatterplot for all 110 decks, I plotted the best-fitting line for all the data points. When you’ve drawn too many lands, these cards can still provide useful effects, allowing you to stay in the game even when you’re flooded. This forces duelists to choose between losing their units or sacrificing their mana, both significant disadvantages.

If you don't ~ does not untap during your next untap step. My subjective judgment of saying that 83.5% is a good number for hitting your first 4 land drops on the draw is mostly based on experience and intuition, and it only applies to a certain type of deck. For such a deck, I’d say that 25 lands is probably the right number. However, since most artifacts are colorless, they're easy to fit into any deck, and several artifact-creature blends also qualify for the mana. This is only one way to represent mana flood, but it gives at least some indication.

To some extent, the above-mentioned cards help a little bit because they incentivize people to add more lands to their deck. Nykthos especially rewards monocolor decks by granting them an astounding amount of mana, often resulting in a net gain of six or more, and the fact that it can simply tap to produce one resource lends it versatility for any situation. But no matter how many lands you play, mana screws and mana floods are part of the game. They’ll cost a lot now. Moreover, you’re generally more mana hungry on the draw because you may have one more spell than your opponent. Y'all really outdid yourselves this time, Noah :).

This essentially shuts down an attacker every unit; since that creature's combat damage is prevented, even if you don't block it, you won't suffer any direct damage. For my second method of providing insight into the question of how many lands you need, I went over the last 3 Pro Tours (Kaladesh, Aether Revolt, and Amonkhet).

The fitted model, based on my data set, is that the number of lands in a deck is given by 16 plus 3.14 times the average converted mana cost of its nonland spells. Basic lands simply tap for a mana of their respective color (consult the chart below), yet many lands offers a wider variety of abilities to justify their usage. These are amazing. A diverse community of players devoted to Magic: the Gathering, a trading card game ("TCG") produced by Wizards of the Coast and originally designed by Richard Garfield.

As a legendary land, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale adheres to the legend rule, meaning you can only control one at once. This mimics the infamous Sol Ring's production, and gaining two resources with a single land can net you an early lead that opponents may never be able to surmount. The extra draw step makes a big difference!

Click the purple bars to expand categories. The numbers for 17 lands in Limited are similar to the ones for 25 lands in Standard. It’s possible that cutting as many as 2 lands might even be correct in some cases. Likewise, if random Aetherworks Marvel spins decide too many games, then players may feel that the game is out of their hands.

For Limited, you can multiply by 40/60 to get close to a good number. As you can see, a lot of simplifications and modeling choices were made and in reality, the truth is somewhere in the middle: Attune with Aether or Aether Vial are not full lands, and cards like Noble Hierarch, Cultivator’s Caravan, or Serum Visions could easily count as half a land or one-third of a land. Plus, unlike the $200 price tag (I'm not kidding) of our next cards, Ith costs well under $20, making it much more affordable to budget players. Sometimes, you have to look beyond the numbers. Take that as an indication when you’re in doubt, you’re probably better off adding that extra land instead of that extra spell to your deck. An interesting observation is that the decks that won the last 3 Pro Tours, pointed out in red, all lie all above the regression line.

This is big game, especially considering these lands don't come into play tapped, so the cost of having a filter land in your deck is relatively low, and the fixing it provides is very flexible. That's unfortunate, but as professional players like to say, "the only life that matters is your last." You may want to keep that in mind when interpreting the eventual results.

Frank Karsten has been playing competitive Magic for over half his life, and he was inducted into the Pro Tour Hall of Fame in 2009. Cradle gives you as many as the number of creatures you control, which can easily hit three or more even in the early stages of the game. Just a random thought. Wedges are sets of three colors (a color and its two enemies) that form a wedge shape, or an acute triangle.123 With the release of Shards of Alara, the shards had their own identites, and the public immediately looked forward to the similar full-set treatment of wedges.

Besides cycling lands, creaturelands, or land-search effects with an alternative ability in the late game, there are plenty of other cards that help mitigate mana flood, and these are invaluable tools for any Constructed deck. But you can at least get a rough guideline from this analysis.

Combining key numbers from both methodologies in a single table, I can offer a suite of recommendations for 60-card decks. Most lands that can provide two mana types come with some sort of gimmick or limitation, like entering tapped unless you pay two life or face multiple opponents. However, unlike Cabal, it's legendary and possesses the standard tap-for-one mana, granting you a single colorless resource.

But mana screws still happen from time to time, even with inflated land counts, and then there are not many cards that can help you. Then, for any opening hand I might keep, I asked, “what is the probability to find at least a certain number of lands after a certain number of draw steps?” For instance, finding at least 5 lands after 4 draw steps would represent the probability of hitting your first 5 land drops on the play.

opening hand” column indicates the expected size of your opening hand after all mulligans are said and done. But more so in Limited than in Constructed, you should check if you still have enough colored mana sources for each of your main colors before doing this. Unless you have tracked the results of thousands of games in a certain matchup, there is no scientific reason why 83.5% is “better” than 80% or 87%. In this article, I will use phrases like “hit your 4th land drop” to mean that you played lands on turns 1, 2, 3, and 4.

I’ll conclude with a table that summarizes the main findings and recommendations. The probability of hitting 4 lands by turn 4 is sufficient: 83.5% on the draw, 74.7% on the play. But I decided to keep things simple by enforcing the same mulligan strategy for every type of deck—this makes it easier to compare the numbers for different land counts. You normally get to play one land from your hand per turn, gradually strengthening your mana production as the match progresses to afford higher-cost spells. And even in its element, it still only gives one mana at a type (where some lands can give multiple) and doesn't have any basic land types, reducing its synergy with cards like "Hinterland Harbor" and such. Also some lands may be found … Besides, there are plenty of factors that should influence your land counts as well, such as whether or not your deck contains additional sources of mana (e.g., Servant of the Conduit) or ways to spend excess mana (e.g., Duskwatch Recruiter).

A superb defensive tactic for any deck, but remember that since you need to target, Maze can't impact enemies with the shroud or hexproof traits. I have no reason to believe that the actual relationship has to be linear per se, but I also didn’t have any reason to suspect a more complicated relationship.

Little bits of variance give weaker players a chance to beat better players, lead to games that play out differently every time, add excitement to draw steps, and make for interesting deck building decisions.

Here's another rare nonmana-related land. You mulligan any 7-card hand with 0, 1, 6, or 7 lands.

The numbers won’t match exactly, but they’ll be close enough.

I’m pretty sure it shouldn’t be 0%, as in Hearthstone, but cards like this Mountain Boar might help us get toward the sweet spot for maximum player satisfaction. In my opinion, as long as they’re relatively infrequent, they’re actually good for the game.

This is not meant to … For example, I will determine the probability of hitting 4 lands by turn 4 under a certain mulligan strategy. List of Nonbasic Lands - The Magic: The Gathering Wiki - Magic: The Gathering Cards, Decks, and more

I would love to see a card like this, for instance. The first approach is based on raw probability calculations. Do you happen to know if I could get a print from Robbie Trevino somehow? That said, since it isn't legendary, you're able to field as many duplicates as you like. I got a reasonable R-squared value (loosely speaking, a statistical measure of how close the data points are to the fitted line) of 0.614, and the results are shown in the picture below. I have to admit, I'm not wild about most of the comic style alt-arts but these...Man, these are lovely.

Also: holy shit Robbie Trevino's promo version are insanely fucking good. A force that's forbidden in legacy but unrestricted in most other formats, Mishra's Workshop grants an unholy amount of colorless mana. Musings – How to balance mana screw and mana flood? In this article, I’ll run the numbers.



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